◆ What are the trends in the stock market in January?
January rates are widely known to investors as "celebration rates." It is said that the month of the new year's meeting, which is the last meeting of the end of the year, is easy to buy with the meaning of congratulations, and the stock price is likely to rise.
This time, we statistically examined the stock market trends in January and the industries that we would like to focus on based on past stock price data.
◇ Verification conditions
Verification target: All brands
Validation period: March 1, 1990 to November 30, 2019
Investment amount per issue: 200,000 yen
Buying conditions: Buy at the end of December
Selling conditions: Selling on the next business day after 25 days
We will verify that all stocks were purchased at the end of December and sold after 25 days. If the win rate is 50% or more and profit and loss are positive, January will be a month when stock prices tend to rise. On the other hand, if profit and loss are negative, January can be said to be an easy month to fall.
The results of verification using past data with the above rules are as follows.
Total profit / loss [rate]: 182,923.54%
Average profit / loss [rate]: 2.13%
Total profit [rate]: 457,370.30%
Average profit [rate]: 9.96%
Total loss [rate]: -274,446.76%
Average loss [rate]: -7.23%
Profit factor [total profit / total loss]: 1.667
Average retention days: 27.11 days
Looking at the test results, the win rate is 54.74% and the average profit and loss is 2.13%. The win rate is over 50% and the average profit / loss per trade is positive, so it can be said that January tends to rise easily.
It is also said that stock prices tend to rise in December when investors' sales of tax-saving measures have reached their end, especially from the middle of the year. In January, the trend of December can be taken over, and it can be said that the uptrend tends to be formed.
Next, let's take a look at the individual stocks that performed particularly well in the January market that was likely to rise.
ラ ン キ ン グ Top-performing stock rankings in January
The table shows the ranking of the stocks with the highest win rates in the previous verification results. Looking at the characteristics of the top-ranking brands, there are brands such as "Senba Saccharification Industry <2916>", "AFC-HD Ams Life Science <2927>", and "Hagoromo Foods <2831>".
These brands are related to “food products”. Most of these stocks have a vesting month at the end of February or March, and it is thought that stock prices are likely to rise as more investors buy in early to acquire rights.
Why don't you focus on these issues when considering your January investment strategy?
Text = Go Nishimura [money guide]