◆ Reit is the target for the December stock market?
The December market is a month in which there are many important events affecting stock prices. While US hedge funds that ended in November move to buybacks, individual investors are more likely to sell tax-saving measures.
This time, I examined the stock market trend in December.
◆ What is the trend of the stock market in December?
It is said that in December, US investment trusts and hedge funds will close, and in December they will buy back their stocks.
On the other hand, it is also a month when the selling pressure is likely to increase because it is easy to sell individual tax-saving measures. After that, when individual sales of tax-saving measures have been completed and the selling pressure has weakened, the buying pressure has increased again, and the stock price is said to begin to rise significantly toward the end of the year.
This is widely known to investors as the market anomaly “Tobi no Ishin”.
This time, we examined the trend of the stock market in December statistically from past stock price data.
◇ Verification conditions
Verification target: All issues
Verification period: March 1, 1990 to October 31, 2019
Investment amount per issue: 200,000 yen
・ Buy at the end of November
・ Sell with the next business day after 25 business days
We will verify the purchase of all stocks at the end of November and sell them after 25 days. If the win rate is 50% or more and the profit / loss is positive, December is a month when stock prices are likely to rise. On the other hand, if profit and loss are negative, December is a month that tends to fall.
The results of verification using past data with the above rules are as follows.
◆ December stock market verification results
Win rate: 48.90%
Number of wins: 42,636
Number of draws: 2,132
Total profit [loss]: -51,376.80%
Average profit / loss [rate]: -0.58%
Total profit [rate]: 353,834.14%
Average profit [rate]: 8.30%
Total loss [rate]: -405,210.94%
Average loss [rate]: -9.09%
Profit factor [total profit ÷ total loss]: 0.873
Average retention days: 27.89 days
The above is the verification result of the stock market trend [December]. Looking at the verification results, the winning percentage was 48.90% and the average profit / loss was -0.58%. The winning rate is almost 50% and the assets are close to 0, so there seems to be no noticeable trend over the whole period.
By the way, from December 20th, the December market anomaly “Tobino Isshin” will begin. “Hagio” means “the momentum comes to a boost”, but after the sale of tax-saving measures by individual investors has come to an end, dressing buying starts at the end of the year and the stock price is said to rise.
A simple verification with the conditional expression of “buy all stocks after December 20 and sell them after the beginning of the year” showed a win rate of 64.76% and an average profit / loss of 2.34%, which is a better result than the previous verification. I was able to confirm.
When considering an investment strategy for December, if you create an investment strategy that uses the “Swing of Kashio”, you will be able to make a profitable trade.
In particular, during the year-end and New Year holidays and the start of a big meeting, it is called a “festival market” where purchases with the meaning of celebrations are entered, and it is said that stock prices are likely to rise. If you use the trend of “Shibori strikes” and “Celebration market price”, the range of trade opportunities will be greatly expanded.
Next, let's look at individual stocks that performed particularly well in December.
◆ Good brand ranking in December
The table shows the ranking of the high win rate stocks issued by the previous verification. The December market seems to be compatible with real estate investment trusts [REITs] such as “Kenedix Office Investment Corporation <8972>” and “Japan Hotel REIT Investment Corporation <8985>”.
In addition, since December is also a bonus month, the investment funds of individual investors are expected to increase. An increase in the amount of funds for individual investors is one of the reasons for the strong performance. How about paying attention to REIT in December?
Text = Takeshi Nishimura [Money Guide]