Investment

Even in December when stock prices are likely to rise, be careful about "car stocks"?

◆ What are the trends in the December stock market [Nikkei 225 issues]?
December is a month in which the company's mid-term financial announcements have been completed and are on the rise again.

In this section, we will introduce stocks whose stock prices tend to be soft year after year. By knowing in advance the stocks that require a drop in stock prices, you will be able to avoid the risk of inadvertent loss.

Before introducing stocks that tend to decline, let's first look at the trend of Nikkei 225 stocks [225 stocks] in the stock market in December. The following table shows the results when the Nikkei Average stocks purchased at the end of November and sold after 25 days.

◇ Verification results
Results of verification of Nikkei average stocks in the December stock market
Win rate: 55.85%
Number of wins: 3,196
Loses: 2,526
Number of draws: 72

Total profit [loss]: 4,750.89%
Average profit / loss [rate]: 0.82%

Total profit [rate]: 23,669.15%
Average profit [rate]: 7.41%

Total loss [rate]: -18,918.26%
Average loss [rate]: -7.49%

Profit factor [total profit ÷ total loss]: 1.251
Average retention days: 27.43

The above is the verification result of the Nikkei average adoption stock in the December stock market. Looking at the verification results, the winning percentage is 55.85% and the average profit / loss is 0.82%. Since the winning rate exceeds 50% and the average profit / loss is also positive, it can be said that the Nikkei average adoption stocks in December tend to rise.

The verification for Nikkei average brands is overwhelmingly better than the verification for all brands. From this result, it can be said that the stock price of the large stocks such as Nikkei average adoption stocks is more likely to rise in the December market than the small and medium-sized stocks.

In this verification, it was confirmed that the Nikkei average adoption stocks [225 stocks] tend to rise at the December market price. Next, we will introduce individual stocks that tend to drop in stock prices in December.

◆ Lower ranking of December market
Stock rankings with low win rates in the verification of Nikkei average adoption stocks [225 stocks]
The table shows the ranking of the stocks with the low win rate in the verification for the Nikkei average adoption stocks [225 stocks]. This time, we are introducing brands with a winning rate of 45% or less. As the win rate was low,

<7211> Mitsubishi Motors: Win rate: 39.29%
<7201> Nissan: Win rate: 41.38%

And brands. These are car stocks. The stocks listed here tend to be soft even in the strong December market, so you should be careful when trading in December.

In December, the stock market as a whole tends to be strong, but you can expect more profit if you choose a stock with a higher win rate than a stock with a low win rate in past trades.

These numbers are just past verification results, so there is no guarantee that the results will be the same in the future. However, numbers with a statistical background will be a reassuring ally to trade with confidence. Please make sure to verify it when you invest.

Text = Takeshi Nishimura [Money Guide]
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