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Forex US financial policy conscious of the dollars is up reluctant to be

*14:49JST Forex US financial policy conscious of the dollars is up reluctant to be
【Last summary】
■The dollar strong, including in the U.S. the two countries Phase 1 of the trade agreement reached

Last week the dollar・yen is strong including. “The U.S. is the 15th of this month for the additional duties triggered by the postponement of review”and the reports, and the United States・Mexico・Canada agreement (USMCA)the amendment agreement is concluded and continue as risk appetite by buy USD・sell JPY and dominant was. 10−11 days to open the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the policy rate unchanged is unanimously determined. Many members in 2020 through the policy rate unchanged, expected revealed that, in Powell U.S. Federal Reserve (FED)Chairman at the press conference that”the rate hike is a significant increase in inflation is necessary”view, which shows the future interest rate cuts is the possibility of being left with the speculation of the spread, it was selling dollars again Lively and was.

However, the United States and China on 12 November, some of the tariff reductions and the 15th of this month for the additional duties the imposition of postponement reached an agreement, Trump President Phase 1 of the trade agreement(the agreement)approved the risk appetite by buying dollars spread rapidly. Dollar・yen is 12 days of the New York market at 109 yen 45 sen rise. Subsequently, the British General election,”the ruling party・the Conservative victory prospects”and reported that 13 morning of the European market in dollar・yen 109 yen and 71 sen or even was higher.

13 days of New York in the Forex market the dollar・yen, mainly 109 yen to the mid-remained. On the 12th made to the British General election, the ruling party・the Tory victory, the next year 1 at the end of the UK to the European Union(EU) to be disengaged from the deterministic and the U.S. and China trade talks of the Phase 1 Agreement, and the additional tariffs of the triggered send in the agreement for the formal announcement and the risk appetite of movement was observed. However, this day announced 11 September US retail sales are below market expectations, with profit aimed at selling dollars is observed, and the dollar rise has paused. Dollar・yen 109 yen 34 sen in this week’s trading finished. Dollar・yen trading range:108 yen 43 sen−109 yen and 71 sen.

[Thisweek’sOutlook】
■US financial policy conscious of the dollars is up reluctant to be

This week the dollar・yen is up reluctant from. US-China trade talks of Phase 1 of the trade agreement of principles agreed to Lindsay sell JPY preceded it. However, the US Federal Reserve Board(the FED)interest rate hike is cautious, the current monetary policy maintained for a long period of time likely to and from this risk appetite approach have greatly expanded the possibility is low that.

Rice Trump administration this month 15 days scheduled for China additional tariff imposition of those found guilty. US-China trade friction of the gradual eliminating the movement toward the United States,risk appetite by dollar buying and yen selling is likely to continue. The British General election, the ruling party・the Conservative Party has the majority seats in the live leg of the confusion to break away Lindsay pound buy・sell JPY has been observed that the high dollar and depreciation of the yen, the progression of factors that drive a long way to go to do it.

However, the FED is at the end of 2020 in long-term interest rates unchanged suggests. Future interest rate cuts may not disappear from at the moment, the risk appetite approach and buy USD・sell JPY and to further expand the possibility is low that. This week will be announced 7-9 month period of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP)final value is the 2%level of growth is expected, and expected the dollar to buy the material from them.

[US・12monthPhiladelphiaFedBusinessConditionsSurvey(manufacturingindex)】(19dayswillbeannounced)
19 announcement of the US 12 month Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Survey (manufacturing index)is 8. 5, the 10 of the month 10. 4 from the slowdown, which is expected. The most recent ISM manufacturing is below 50 the situation continues, the manufacturing sector of the sentiment of the poor is shown if additional rate cuts to the speculation is easy to spread.

[US・7-9monthtermthegrossdomesticproduct(GDP)finalvalue】(20dayswillbeannounced)
20 announcement of a US 7-9 month term the gross domestic product(GDP) final value annualized+2.1% of the numbers expected. Market expectations, and if a match is found, the risk-averse dollar selling is likely to spread to low that.

Expected range:108 yen 50 sen−110 yen 50 sen《FA》


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