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Forex weekly Outlook: lower astringency, and the U.S. economy to the normalization of the expected remaining

*14:37JST exchange rates weekly Outlook: lower astringency, and the U.S. economy to the normalization of the expected remaining
【Last summary】
■The dollar lower the reluctance,the US economy’s early recovery expectations remain

Last week the dollar・yen is lower reluctance. 6 on May 30 announced 6 on the CB Consumer Confidence Index exceeded market expectations, which showed improvement from 7 on 1 day of the Asian markets in dollar・yen 108 yen range and a half bought. 7 on 1 September announcement of the 6 on ISM manufacturing, the market expectations and significantly outperformed the dollar・yen will support you. 1 Day published by the Federal Open Market Committee [FOMC] meeting proceedings, the”participating members the majority of the curve・the control[long-and short-term interest rates, operation]introduction of caution”and include a description of, and selling dollars to suppress contributed.

The United States each state in the new corona virus cases surge in the number of new reports received,risk appetite by buying dollars and potions, and 2 announced on the 6 month U.S. payrolls exceeded market expectations that the strong content that was from the dollar・yen is temporary 107 yen thereafter until returned. Incidentally, the 3 day U.S. Independence Day of substitute holiday for the US market is closed. Dollar・yen is 107 yen 51 sen in this week’s trading finished. Dollar・yen trading range:107 yen and 04 Sen−108 yen 16 sen.

[Thisweek’sOutlook】
■Lower the reluctance from the US economy, to the normalization of the expected remaining

This week the dollar・yen is lower the astringent from. The United States a new type of coronavirus infection of the re-expansion and the economy of early normalization to assess the deployment, the expectation and vigilance in the dollar・yen trade is trading mixed it. However, the Federal Reserve [FED]of the curve・the control[long-and short-term interest rate operations/YCC]the introduction of the speculation has receded, and the speculative dollar selling is suppressed may be.

Last week it was announced the United States of 6 on ISM manufacturing and 6 January employment report is expected to show improvement, the US economy’s early recovery is expected to spread. Powell Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board also testified before Congress at the beginning of the assumed faster than with our Re-view indicates,this week’s economic indicators are strong and the contents were the case, risk-evasive yen buying is inhibited expansion, which is expected.

On the other hand, Lagarde and the European Central Bank [ECB]President points out, the Eurozone economy is the worst off with a small range. In the short term, the economic indicators for clues to buying euros is assumed. The European reconstruction Fund, the Michelle European Union [EU] President[permanent President]is a compromise solution this week announced during the like. A compromise solution is evaluated, if buying euros to boost the dollar, downward pressure on that.

However, in the United States in the new corona virus infection is re-expanded, and Hong Kong reign over US-China confrontation deepened as safe 逃避的 not have us reduced to a situation that is not the view of many. The United States Congress in Hong Kong the autonomy bill is enacted, if the relationship between the United States and China prospects are further aggravated and concerned. These factors in the U.S. stock and commodity prices significantly cheaper if the safety 逃避的 you may have temporarily strengthened the possibility.

[US・6ontheISMnon-manufacturingbusinessclimateindex】[6dayswillbeannounced] 7 November 6 announcement of U.S. 6 on ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Climate Index was 49.1, and 5 on the 45. 4 outweigh the prospects. Like the recession of the milestone of 50% if you approach early recovery from expectations for higher stock prices lead to the dollar, the lower the reluctance to deploy have a long way to go to do it.

[Us・lastweekminutesinitialjoblessclaims】[9dayswillbeannounced] 7 month 9 days announced the previous week minutes initial jobless claims,improvement is noted. Employment is recovering, the number of applications filed downward trend is clear, and he has any number of applications exceeded expectations, the sales material may be.

Expectations: 106 yen 00 Sen−109 yen 00 Sen《FA》


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