Forex weekly Outlook: on the reluctance, the US-China talks over the additional information is a clue to the material

*14:26JST exchange rates weekly Outlook: on the reluctance, the US-China talks over the additional information is a clue to the material
【Last summary】
■Weak,U.S.-China consultation of uncertainty is dispelled first

Last week the dollar・yen is weak. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative(USTR)is 12 on 2 November,the French digital taxation law enforcement retaliation against the tariff proposal was announced, and playing the US President in 3 days,”China trade negotiations agreed on a deadline,”not”next year in 11 months of the presidential election wait until after the better”view to tell this from, the dollar・yen 109 yen thereafter from 108 yen to the mid-near or in major currencies. Trump the President on the 4th, China and trade talks about the talks”extremely good progress on that. What you want to see how the”view to tell this from the dollar, to buy back the movement spread, the dollar・yen is temporary 109 yen 00 Sen in the back, but the risk appetite by buying dollars the expansion was.

Day 6 of the New York Forex market, the 11 September US payrolls expected to improve in the favorable risk appetite by buy USD・sell JPY was observed. Dollar・yen is temporary 108 yen 92 sen is bought, the US-China trade talks, the Outlook is still opaque,add the tariffs and the imposition of potential is being left for the month, but dollars to buy the potions. After all, the 108 yen 56 sen in this week’s trading finished. Dollar・yen trading range:108 yen 43 sen−109 yen 73 sen.

■On the reluctance, the US-China talks over the additional information is a clue to the material

This week the dollar・yen is up reluctant from. 11 January US employment report is not reflecting the improvements in the economy bottoming out is awareness,the US Federal Reserve Board(the FED)interest rate cuts hit Stop observation have spread. However, the US-China trade talks, the Outlook is still uncertain, risk-averse trading is dollars down the scene would be. The FED 12 March 10-11, hosted by the Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC)meeting of the monetary policy of the status quo to determine the likely. The last meeting, this policy of evaluating the effects of posture laid out, and the interest rate of deferment is factored in, the interest rates to long-deferred hope that the dollar buying is expected.

Just announced this week that 11 month consumer price index and 11 on retail sales is the last result was below the case, the slowdown of speculation resurfaced, and risk appetite by dollar buying and yen selling is likely to shrink to. Also, the US-China trade talks additional information also requires attention. Trump is the President,part of the agreement about the next 11 months of the presidential race after into possibilities to mention, but then Trump the administration’s negotiators agreed closely with the view of convey. Rounds National Economic Council Director(NEC) Chairman 12 November 6,”12 month 15 days of additional duties regarding the decision to Trump the President’s judgment,”he said, and U.S.-China trade talks in Phase 1 of the agreement Trump the President clearly acknowledged if you buy USD・sell JPY and spreading the possibility is left.

11 announcement 11 month Consumer Price Index (CPI)y / y+1.7%,the core index y / y + 2.3% is expected. The most recent core inflation exceeded market expectations, if the rate cuts hit Stop observations boost the possibility.

【The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)meeting】 (11 days to play out)
10-11 held on the FOMC meeting, the policy rate unchanged is a majority as determined by the likely. However, the FOMC statement in the future additional interest rate cuts, indicated the possibility of the case, the risk appetite by buying dollars to shrink from that.

Expectations:107 yen 50 sen−110 yen 00 Sen《FA》

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