Economy

Japan’s potential growth rate,the new Corona Effect after 21 years and a half minus from the NLI Research Institute

NLI Research Institute on the 10th,Japan’s potential growth rate after 2021 and a half is likely to be negative and the estimate was announced. In 2019 the consumption tax hike, since the GDP growth rate is minus followed,the new corona virus infection expansion the potential growth rate also that is casting the shadow.

【Here】The new corona,the Japanese 6% of the”2nd wave”and”economic trends”concerned about 8% are still”going out to be vigilant”

■The potential growth rate is stimulated not susceptible

The potential growth rate is”medium-term sustainable and economic of scale where a country’s economic fundamentals[skills]represents the estimated value[International Monetary Research Institute HP quote]”only. Be computed as follows.

Potential growth rate=potential labor input growth rate × labor share + potential capital input quantity growth rate × capital distribution ratio[=1-labor share] + TFP[total factor productivity]growth rate

The business cycle depends on the number in Japan is higher, Plus in the United States. The Bank, according to a 2019 second half of the potential growth rate is 0. 13%in a low reading is negative and is not.

But in fact the real GDP growth rate of the affected tend. The new corona virus infection by the expansion of economic stagnation, potential growth rate can also affect came out.

■Potential growth rate in 2020, 7-9 year on year performance estimates

NLI Research Institute, the new corona virus infection by the expansion of the real GDP growth rate was negative, if the potential growth rate is how much lower from the estimated.

According to preliminary calculations,in 2020 1-3 month term is 0. 6% plus growth was in 2020, 7-9 month period turned negative,2021 Year 10-12 month period 0. 4% decrease in the minus width is expanded and seen.

■Excessive pessimism is unnecessary

The potential growth rate of that country’s true ability to measure that number, but, if negative for the Japanese economy, the power of the fallen and judgment is premature, however. The potential growth rate is estimated, and especially the new corona virus infection by increasing the economic limit is a temporary treatment however.

The potential growth rate of the previous data is corrected for the circumstances. This is the potential growth rate used in the calculation of the data will be revised for sure. Therefore, a sufficient width to have the need to look.

In the future a new type of coronavirus vaccine development and a new lifestyle in accordance with demand such as real GDP growth is likely to be there. The potential growth rate is negative, even if excessive pessimism is unnecessary just. [Article: financial planner・Wakayama, Takuya・The article list to look at]


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