Market Outlook 1 August 27 issue of the record of high stock prices hit U.S. stocks, warning signs Japanese shares some of the foreign sellers of the signs of a peak feeling of drifting

■I. The U.S. stock market

●1. The U.S. shares this year, the smooth start was

1] U.S. stocks representing the index of the SP500 species, 2020 since the beginning of the year the rate of increase is+3%and strong performance.
2] The Rise of the factors,
[1] US-China trade war one armistice was
[2] low interest rates
[3] Bright U.S. economic Outlook
Such as after.
Thus, the number of housing starts than in the previous month deteriorating despite the market sentiment is good, this is optimistic thinking of the increase in U.S. stocks is the highest update.
For an individual,
[1] Strong result was announced with major banks,
[2] Apple and Intel and Microsoft in configuring information technology is YTD+6% rise in US stock market driven.

【Previous】theMarket Outlook 1 May 20 issue of the financial market bubble can continue to expand, global Of alone to win in 3 million dollars

●2. However, even now, many investors are cautious attitude continues to show huge wait for the funds the whereabouts of?

1] rice the Investment Trusts Association, Japan[ICI], according to institutional investors, such as standby funds by 2018 10 month-end balance of 310 trillion yen, by 2020 Years 1 month 17 date and time point at about 400 trillion yen increase.

2] this means that[1] the future of the stock price decline in reading,profit selling by funds retained increase continues
[2] a huge not wait for the funds to buy turnout by Dow 3 million dollars to support that
And one for you to read.

●3. SP500 fear index [the VIX index] from super optimistic too circumstances indicating

1] the fear index is 1 months 17 days”12.10″point to with more than optimistic the current status showed.
2] concerns
[1] now in stock,the 2020 business performance improvement is embedded. I seem to be in the spring, and subsequent revisions to the earnings forecast will be in the market to cold water showered on the possibility that there is concern.
[2] The Information Technology sector of the stock price over the past 1 years+50% on the price earnings ratio [PER] of 22 times,since 2005, with a high level of that concern.
[3] the SP500 of PER also 18. 8 times and a high standard located in this concern. This is 2018, the VIX shock at the time of 18. 7 times is exceeded PER the vision was. Investors have”excess liquidity, relying on the United States share of the increase believe do not doubt this risk as”to be aware of the standards and interpretation as possible.

●4. The 2020 corporate performance from the perspective of a strong expansion that can be expected

1] SP500 companies profit forecast
[1] in 2019, 10 ~ 12 months ended quarterly plan of whole the ratio is▲0.8% decrease.
In the energy sector, with the exception of the+1.9%increase.
In technology companies is a+0.6%increase.
[2] the 2020 business performance SP500 companies throughout the year-on-year increase rate of+9.2%.
Within, the technology company’s earnings growth rate is+10.4%.

2] Trump say”within 90 days of the middle class for tax cuts”announced

●5. U.S. stocks▲10%adjustment [depreciation]is”one possible”remark is

1] US hedge Fund investment company founder of a column he has been in Davos in an interview,
[1] the FED[US Central Bank] monetary policy, thanks to the market momentum is alive and well.
[2]”U.S. stocks upward direction,▲10%of the price adjustment is not happening anything”
[3] high-tech share price earnings ratio [PER] is the danger zone, the 2-consecutive year of a decline is on the horizon for you.
[4] the economic slowdown is PER weighed on the 2003 situation are not.

・Subsequently, the”China market”analysis to

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