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Market Outlook 2 January 27 issue of the Nikkei stock average of this bottom 20,500 yen, and the period is 4 month and expect U.S. stocks world stocks reversal of stewards to change without

■I. The U.S. stock market

●1. The stock market and 新型肺炎 relationship

1] 新型肺炎 is pathogenic in the cold, unchanged from the lethal risk is low, but the infectivity is strong, for the people and the flow of disrupted by the economic losses the greater the risk.

【Previous】Market prospects 2 month 25 days, China the relationship between the concentration in the country・the brand name selection of forward US long-and short-term interest rate differential reduction・reversing guard

2] 新型肺炎 risk, the stock price decline triggers a US-China trade war phase 1 of the agreement overestimated the positive quotes at the end was the biggest decline factors.

●2. The United States 2 days of lower width▲1,911 dollars in the largest ever

1] 2 on 24 October, the global simultaneous declines in stock markets, the Dow is 2 on 24 October▲1,031 dollar of 27,960
Dollars.

・South Korea and Italy, such as the new corona virus cases surge in the global economy concern, the European stock market is the stock indices for the flow, receiving the United States stock market Dow just plummeted.
・The rate of decline▲3.56%, and by 2018 2 months since and 2 years down the width of the record.

2] 2 month 25 days, the NY Dow▲879 dollar

・In the world flourishes 新型肺炎 in the United States also spread concerns me.
・U.S. economy and corporate earnings, adverse effects on vigilance, banking and capital goods such as economic sensitive stocks focusing primarily on the stocks was sold.

3] this 2-day lower width▲1,910 dollar, and the rate of decline has slowed▲8.35%.

・By 2018 2 months from 2 days of 2 days of lower width▲1,840 dollars through the largest.
・U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention[CDC] in the United States the infection spread to facilities,educational institutions and companies in special measures that call for.
・Trump for President is a $ 2.5 billion emergency budgetary measures through Parliament to request the policy.

●3. This stock Ticker is a 3 段下 up[down and back repeatedly], expected,now is Phase 1

1] in the chart, the DJIA is”the three+double-top”to 2 month 12 days the axis is formed,of the decline suggests the possibility for.

2] expected lower width,[1] and[2] between,[2] close to potential.
Rock-bottom rate of decline
[1]▲10%lower : 26,595 USD ▲2,955 USD
[2]▲20%lower : 23,640 USD ▲5,910 USD

3] 3 段下 of the bottom of the reach Time,3 months after the 4 June mid-assumption.

4] however, Trump the President and the FED in support of 1 month after 3 month the second half will be at the bottom
The possibility also.

5] and this phase 1 of the lower to Trump the President in support of the return high to predict.

●4. The U.S. economy one of the wins to change the world, not of the strain reversal in U.S. stocks leader in

●5. The pandemic Declaration, a serious scenario, and the possibility of[Bloomberg]

1] Oxford・economy class
・新型肺炎 is expanding internationally, if the world’s total production to 1 trillion 1,000 billion dollars [about 110 trillion yen]and blow get. It is the United States and the Euro area both the 2020 in the first half to the session[recession]to fall into the scenario.
・This is,[1] workers ‘ holiday, the number of days Surge [2] productivity of deterioration [3] travel demand reduction [4] disruptions in the supply chain production・sales of a hindrance [5] trade and investment in the reduction of the combined influence.

2] The International Monetary Fund[IMF]・World growth rate is currently 3. 3% estimate, the 新型肺炎 by▲0.1%down.
・Pandemic is declared If there are”serious downside risk and serious scenarios of risk”is to say that.

3] UBS
・World growth rate is 3. From 5% to 0. 5% significantly reduced, the Chinese economy is 1~3 month period of negative growth and have warned.

■II. China stock market

●1. The Shanghai Composite Index,”National Corps”by the postal cards of stock price manipulation for the game from the first

1] the world at the same time share prices in the Shanghai Composite Index is robust to the remains, this is a shaded relief of the stock of maneuver not not where.

2] This Is The 新型肺炎 caused a national upset quell of the Chinese Communist Party, by which 1 party dictatorship to maintain measures of the 1 and only that.

■III. The Japanese stock market

●1. Japanese stocks environment

1] price support was the continued depreciation of the yen stopped, and the foreign futures sell accelerated.

2] China has a high dependence on China for economic deterioration and performance deterioration of the Japanese economy, a slowing of the risk increases.

●2. The Nikkei stock average decline expected

1] the past rate of decline for the Nikkei Stock Average rock-bottom expectations
The rate of decline rate of decline ⇒rock-bottom expectations
[1] 2015 年 12 月 01 day⇒the 2016 02 May 12▲28.3% ▲6,816 yen⇒17,267 yen
[2] The Year 2018 01 May 23⇒in 2018 03 May 23▲14.5% ▲3,492 yen⇒20,591 yen
[3] 2018 years 10 months 02 days⇒by 2018 12 May 25▲21.1% ▲5,081 yen⇒19,002 yen

2] rise for the Nikkei Stock Average rock-bottom expectations
2018 Years 12 month 25 Days ⇒ 2020 years 01 month 20 days
19,155 yen 24,083 yen ⇒ increase width + 4,928 yen

The rate of decline expected decline in the amount of rock-bottom expectations
[4] 38.2% ▲1,882 yen 22,201 yen
[5] 61.8% ▲3,045 yen 21,030 yen
[6] 76.4% ▲3,764 yen 20,318 yen

3] the above values from,”20,500 yen”to the bottom of the guide and tried.

4] either way, Trump the President and the FED’s price support effects are intense for the bottom image is greatly affected.


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