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Market Outlook 5 May 18 issue of the US stocks why is the force stronger. Their suspicions? EPS(1-share earnings)of significantly worse, the time difference in the stock price plunging of the Omen

■I. The U.S. stock market

●1. US stocks why strong

⇒ [1] the FED has trillions of dollars of funds into the economy pouring from you. [2] fractional stocks,new Corona tail wind benefits the increase in global strength to traction.

【Previous】Market Outlook 5 May 13 issue of the Trump”of the FED’s negative interest rates is to request”at No. 2 on the bottom wary

1] US stocks are the most overvalued, but now the PER of height is not an issue. However, the stock price increases, the profit expectations are falling.
・The SP500 index in 2020 expected 1 earnings per share[EPS] is now 128 and,at the beginning of the 152 from the dollar decline.
・Profit expectations downward and the phenomenal rise in stock prices, combined with the Expected Price-Earnings ratio [PER] is 23 times near a record high near by.
・In 1999, the forecast PER is about 26 times was the status quo, is a record not of 2020, the projected income is further reduced if the PER is 30 times closer to May.

2] high PER is disturbing, but the worry is not necessary.
・The US Federal Reserve Board [the FED]by the trillions of dollars of funds in the economy poured into it.
・In the past financial stimulus measures had been taken at the time PER significantly re-evaluated.
・PER rise further it is difficult to say, but now the level of the problem, not voice there.

3] the NASDAQ Composite Index is the preeminent rising power,the United States shares the overall index driven.
・However, NASDAQ stocks overall have risen rather a bit brand name by just the number of important role.
・NASDAQ stocks number of approximately 2,700 to, Apple・Amazon・Microsoft, such as the top 10 stocks have a market capitalization of about 44 percent. And, like Apple GAFAM with brand new Corona nest of the most phenomenon tailwind to earnings have substantially increased. But the 10 largest stocks are undervalued, not in 2020, the average expected PER is 47 times higher than that.
・High PER of the few gainers of the rise in stock prices, the NASDAQ Composite Index’s rise,the United States shares the whole rise, and investors can secure sleep at night situation to make you.

●2. Its a bit of brand name of high PER doubts arise, the overall stock market is upset that the attention.

・US stock market leading the charge was[1] cloud-related [2] Internet-related stock prices are the new Corona before infection to come back, and the legroom is far better than the situation and have begun to change.
・The SP500’s earnings yield of 10-year government bond yield minus the width of the new Corona before infection back to the level of the stock market’s relative attractiveness has declined considerably.
・Optimism is for the real thing aspects and gradually receded as well.

●3. US 4 on the PPI,since 2009 the largest decline in rates, selling dollars, leading to concerns about deflation

1] the US Labor Department announced that the 4 producer price index [PPI] is a month-to-month▲1.3%expected, and▲0.5%was below. Year-on-year▲1.2%and in 2015 the 10 months since the largest decline in rate.

2] economic recession leads to deflation is a concern it may be.

●4. The FED Chairman say,”the U.S. economy is corona and the ominous in the long-term downturn” ⇒ investor market sentiment to cool or

1] Powell Chairman 13 the day of the presentation,the new corona of the spread of infection by the economic downturn, about the”scope and speed in recent years is unprecedented, without World War 2 after the end of the recession than serious”and pointed. “Deeper and longer recession in the economy permanent damage which may leave”and alarm bells rang. Then,
[1] the Congress further fiscal stimulus, such as additional measures you need to take and claim.
[2] the FED is optionally further corresponding to to clear.
[3] Trump the President to ask for”negative interest rates”, the”United States attractive to policy, the Bank’s profitability such as reduced side effects,we use policy instruments is not,”he explained.

2] in the United States, the resumption of economic activity has begun to resume rush and the new Corona infection of the”2nd wave”to happen, but not with a sense of vigilance is also strong.

3] in this situation of Powell remarks, and further market the economic concerns that spurred. And investor sentiment to cool off the U.S. stock market is the economy sensitive stocks mainly sell the dominance was.

●5. Corona ominous by the US economic stimulus and the corona measures 2.6 trillion 800 billion dollars [about 287 trillion yen]of government spending

1] the United States of this year’s defense spending is about 7,300 billion dollars of 3 years, greater than half scale.

●6. The IMF[International Monetary Fund]in fiscal 2020 GDP growth rate [YoY] forecast

1] the United States ▲5.9% decrease
The Euro area ▲7.5% decrease
Japan ▲5.2% decrease
China ▲4.9% decrease

2] tax revenues fell sharply in a huge amount of JGBs issuance will
・The US debt is 23 trillion dollars [about 2,460 trillion yen]imminent, and the corona-related spending is about 3 trillion dollars change.
・Japan’s government debt is 1,114 trillion yen[by the end of 2019]. [Local government debt is excluded.]

●7. WHO [World Health Organization],the new corona is”extinguished possibilities”, the end of a long road and a recognition

1] the new corona virus,HIV virus and the same, symbiotic from the deal.

●8. Trump,”the Chinese President and now the story was not”and with China 断交 also suggested[FOX News, interview with, 5/14 the morning of the broadcast]

1] new corona around China”quite disappointed”.

2] the U.S. market-listed Chinese companies is the U.S. accounting standards do not follow the”very severe gaze,”he said.

3] 断交 case,”5,000 billion dollars [about 53. 5 trillion yen]would help to save” – now it’s a different kind of furniture at another person’s home.

●9. Semiconductor leader TSMC[Taiwan] rice Arizona to 5 nanometers of a semiconductor plant

1] investment of 120 billion US dollars [about 1. 3 trillion yen],construction starts in 2021・start of mass production in 2024 plan.

2] the U.S. high-tech manufacturing industry leadership position and strengthen our national security and competitiveness enhancement of boost.

3] TSMC and semiconductor circuit design, strong US corporate and partnership enhancement and consumer service competitiveness increase.

Subsequently, the”Chinese stock market””Japanese stock market”analysis,”featured stocks”to


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