Market Outlook 7 November 22 issue of his catch in the South China Sea People 工島 destruction, the stock market crash even before the presidential election of 8 Mid-10 end of alert

■I. The U.S. stock market

●1. US stock market,7/15 New York download 26,870 dollar to rise,7/16・17 fell, 7/21 the rise

1] vaccine development is expected from the United States of economic activity and the normalization of the delay concerns of the stock weight on.
・U.S. employment recovery slowed, suggesting that the index of consumer confidence rose to its highest level in the material was sold was ascendant.
・New Corona number of infected people has exceeded 7 million, to a record level,the economic recovery of the late concern.

【Previous】Market Outlook 7 June 16 issue of the South China Sea over US-China conflict the intensification of the”clash of embers”swell

2] the US-China confrontation intensified concern if investor sentiment to cool off.

3] Results [4~6 month period] earnings ushered in uncertainty for.

4], the 7/21 European Union[EU] 92 trillion yen of new coronal Reconstruction Fund agreement favorable, the market can also buy the predominant DJIA is+159 dollar・26,840 and that.

5] the SP500 with PER [Price Earnings ratio] of only 29. 9-fold and higher levels, the stock market now is around the peak close to it.

●2. US Secretary of the short interest rate differential[US Treasury 10-year bond and 2-year bond interest rate differential]began to shrink in the future,attention

1]6/5 0.689% ⇒ 7/16 0.472% ⇒ 7/20 0.463%

●3. The U.S. economy is the rate of improvement slowed

1] retail sales are improving, while the growth rate is slowing. 7 on the corona of infection, re-expand deterioration is not expected.

●4. Democrats Biden administration was the case

1] the current United States concerning the election according to the poll, President Biden,both the House of Representatives and the Senate the Parliament is the Democratic large number of the”triple・Blue”may be.

2] Biden administration’s budget featured
[1] Social Security・Public Works increase is inevitable.
[2] the military budget is reduced,security spending is relatively limited concern.
[3] a tax increase
・Corporate income tax 21% ⇒ 28%in UP.
・Wealth tax annual income of 40 million dollars of the wealthy to taxation.
・Real estate investment taxable 7,750 billion dollars [about 83 trillion yen]of funding, childcare and aged care appropriation.

3]”triple・blue”, the US stock market and tax increases as well not be affected.

●5. The Republican has $ 1 trillion of additional measures to prepare

●6. ABC News and the Washington Post, the paper is 7/19 announced the latest poll,Biden candidate favorable

1] Biden candidate support 55% Trump presidential support at 40%, the difference is 15%increase. The difference is shrinking, far from,opposite to the open one.

2] this trend continues, the American public’s anti-China consciousness of a strong increase in the background, and Trump administration 11/3 of the election day before 8 Mid-10 at the end of the Chinese”South China Sea artificial island・a military base and destroy”and 局地戦争 to occur come out. The election of Outnumbered to defend against the most powerful methods in one Trump support would increase. However,Biden candidate to the National painful tax increases to pledge to raise just beginning effective.

3] top-US Secretary of State recently of China to a hard-nosed condemnation of that before, but it’s not.

4] China’s XI Jinping regime has built an artificial island in the South China Sea, the civilians are very rare, and the International Court of justice in The Hague[permanent mediation court]is”illegal”and ruled in. This U.S. attack, as the humanitarian or international law be held liable for a risk that is less.

●7. Gold prices expected

1] surging factor
[1] excess liquidity from inflation hedge
[2] stock market volatility an escape from the[stock market VIX fear index rise][3] the United States and China to attack the higher the risks to hedge
[4] FED USD printing increased by USD decline avoidance

2] before the end of the year, the gold price is 2,000 USD/1 oz pushed up to May.

3] the current indicators, the gold price adjustment is the buying opportunity that.

●8. The International Monetary Fund [IMF], [1] the U.S. administration early stimulus implementation [2] US FED’s asset purchase expansion

1] in the United States is the new corona of infection, re-expand in the next few weeks the Federal government to remedy some of the expired and economic recovery, threatened, concerned,additional measures of implementation urged.

2] the IMF is the US unemployment rate is 10 ~ 12 month term at 9. 7% expected that in 2019 the level of 3 times.

●9. U.S. consumer sentiment index, 7 on an unexpected 73. 2 [expected 79 the previous month, 78. 1] and lowered, pessimistic

1] a new type of Corona infection in the re-expansion, the economy resumed by the Sprout was optimistic almost ceased to exist.

2] survey for the University of Michigan, the consumer is[1] the economic blow of the Expansion [2] social turmoil of the growth [3] households cannot overcome such scarred,and this is expected to have.

●10. Rice the Johns Hopkins University announced 7/16 new Corona number of infected people

1] 7 million exceed the record number was.

2] the rice economy of the normalization is delayed because of the concerns is strong.

●11. 米上 in the House of Representatives 7/20 from the new Corona related additional economic stimulus measures, talks about the resumption

1] state and local government assistance to and 7 at end-censored to unemployment benefits of increased measures such as talks about.

2] in the stock market,this discussion’s mood is strong, aggressive trading is restrained from it. Incidentally, the 7/21 European reconstruction Fund 92 trillion JPY consensus of the good, the DJIA is+0.6% higher.

Subsequently, the”Chinese stock market””Japanese stock market”analysis,”featured stocks”to

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