Market prospects 2 month 25 days, China the relationship between the concentration in the country・the brand name selection of forward US long-and short-term interest rate differential reduction・reversing guard

■I. The U.S. stock market

●1. The Federal Open Market Committee [FOMC]minutes of the meetings

1] cautious US economy optimistic,the end of the EZ direction.

【Previous】theMarket Outlook 2 January 17 issue of U.S. stocks soar vs Japanese stocks dull movement, and why?

2] 7 March in easing the 4th policy[QE4:monthly 600 billion dollars]to the end, as planned.
⇒ The bull market to support the FED’s loose monetary policy changes to alert you.

3] 新型肺炎 to”new risks”as the U.S. economy, the impact of gaze.

●2. Long-and short-term interest rate differential[10-year government bond yield and 2 year government bond yield difference] are shrinking gaze

1] 2 month 20 days the difference is 0. 126% [1 month 8 days is 0. 293%]reduction.
SP500 P / E ratio is 20 times in the vicinity of a high standard, and fought to further upset alert.

2] reverse the[long-and short-term interest rate differential reversal of]cause to be wary. 1 August 31 NY Dow▲603 dollar was the day of long-and short-term interest rate differential is 0. 194%.

1 September 8 October 1 October 31 November 2 November 20
10-year government bond yield of 1.874% 1.507 1.515
02-year government bond yield 1.581 1.313 1.389
The difference in interest rates between 0.293 0.194 0.126
DJIA + $161 high ▲$603 cheap ▲$128 cheap [next day▲$227]

●3. The FED,market interest rate cuts expected for the careful attitude[and record]

1] 新型肺炎 the infection spread of economic activity to suppress the growth of concern from the United States interest rate futures market in Year 1 to a maximum of 2 times for additional interest rate cuts, weaving began. The market reaction is fast, in 2020, 6 months, 7 months of rate cuts factored in yet.

2] the US Federal Reserve Board [the FED]is the US economy optimistic,the end of the interest rates unchanged expected to maintain.
Click to download the FED Vice chair is 20 days,[1] 新型肺炎 China economic impact that is inevitable [2] 新型肺炎 of the United States of monetary policy needs modification and there is no proof,as”the interest rate cuts of the possibility is not high,”he said.

●4. Apple is 新型肺炎 the influence of the target on sales announced

1] Apple is in mainland China stores and offices closed, or the manufacturing base and supply base for the nearly half is in China for a large mess of risks.

2] Apple’s products are assembled to make Taiwan’s electronic manufacturing major・Hon Hai Precision Industry last week, also the production activity to resume was going to be. However, some of the factories will shut down your other employees, a return rate of 10% of the plant, and it has been reported that

●5. Apple non 新型肺炎 affected the main rice companies examples of

1] the leading connector manufacturers Amphenol
・China sales accounting for about 30%.

2] the computer equipment giant HP [Hewlett Packard]・Factory workers of about 70%is in China working.

3] PC giant Dell
・Vendors more than half of the Chinese depend on.

Subsequently, the”Chinese stock market”analysis to

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