■I. The U.S. stock market
●1. US stocks(DJIA)the transition of the
1) rice emergency cuts, rather than 新型肺炎 the world economy given that concern has increased with the recognition of the higher, the Dow is 3/3▲785 dollar, 3/4+1,173 high,3/5▲969 cheap,3/6▲256 lower value is 25,864 dollar fell to.
●2. U.S. corporate earnings are revised downward in the slanting direction
1) visa,新型肺炎 of stroke by income growth▲2.5~▲3.5%downside also.
2) Master Card,▲2~▲3% below that of the prospect revealed.
3) retail giant Target full-year profit below analysts ‘ expectations were.
4) Microsoft, the new Corona fad,1~3 month period of the financial forecast downward revision.
●3. Rice emergency interest rate cuts,lower width is▲0.5%
1) the US Federal Reserve Board (the FED)is 3 days, and extraordinary of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the emergency hold,the interest rate of the lower width▲0.5%of the Year 1. 0~1.25%and announced.
2) the US 10-year bond yields of the FED’s interest rate cuts, to receive a temporary 0. 906% of the first 1% of the cracking.
3) market assessment, as”the FED’s interest rate cuts failed. The market succumbed to a haircut,investors, added to the anxiety. All this is sufficiently kneaded it is not”with voice also.
●4. US FED reported:”tourists and parts missing,the new virus us adverse impact on the economy”
1) China production of stagnation than a mess of parts and material shortages that have arisen.
2) the FED’s additional interest rate cuts, but the US economy to concerns about rapidly increasing.
●5. 新型肺炎 related
1) the United States of new virus dead 17 people, in Italy・such as the UK in Europe the spread of infection
・California, New York State has declared a state of emergency, the further spread of the infection curbed out.
2) Rice, new antivirus as 83 billion dollars (8,700 billion yen)of the emergency legislation enacted.
3) the EU, the new virus in France and Italy in recession risk warning
4) the International Monetary Fund(IMF) Managing Director of the new Corona as a threat,the world economy is”more dark”scenarios, said. However, the viral effect is still difficult to foresee with the view of also showed.
5) Rice of NY the financial institution of new anti-virus enhanced
・(1)travel restrictions(2) event cancel(3) telecommuting, (4) the infected area to visit and to stay at home, etc
●6. Citigroup, the investors,for the time being Investment Act of contemplation as you continue warned
1) Powell Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, the”interest rate▲0.5%of the reduction in the new virus by economic risks is inadequate and acknowledged”.
2) now the economic data is still a new type of coronavirus impact is not reflected.
3) the new virus is a global application session can cause. So if the corporate income▲25%reported a decline in stock prices similar to the fall and noted.
●7. Morgan Stanley,the United States shares”from▲11%decline in the possibility of 新型肺炎 the impact of the”
1) the Morgan Stanley Capital International(MSCI)is 5 days,a new type of coronavirus infection by the expansion impact in US stocks in the short term further▲11%decline may be announced.
2) the rate of economic growth in the short term▲2%decline,the risk premium is+2% rise, assuming that in the short term, a further cheap there’s plenty of room for notes. “The United States shares 2 May 19, from 3 months to 3 days already▲11%has fallen,from▲11%lower may be”and was.
3) the global economy in the short-term setback suffer from,market recovery may be. However, a pandemic (worldwide epidemic)and long-term growth trajectory of the shot and the deterioration of corporate earnings, but its impact is more long-term would.
●8. Worst-case scenario”recession”(the session)if the US SP500 index was a substantial decline
1) and of movement restrictions invites the economic downturn is concerned, already a leading indicator is a”bear market”into the Suggesting of out begins. In addition, Sky luck and leisure, including corporate performance and economic concerns is fit to see the signs first.
2) business benefits▲reduced by 25% (city estimate) for the case of the US SP500 index prediction
・Currently in 2020 1 share profit expected is 174 dollars only,▲25% reduction, and⇒ 130.5 dollar to decline.
・The SP500 index(1) Highest 2 month 19 days 3,386,(2) 3 month 6 speak only the value is 2,972. That is, 3 6 has the highest value from▲414 cheap,rate▲12.2%and a decline situation.
・The worst-case scenario of the SP500 index value is as follows.
Cases PER SP500 the highest rate of decline from the further fall in the rate
(1) 18 times 2,400 ▲30%decline ▲17.8%decline
(2) 16 times 2,100 ▲40%decline ▲27.8%decline
Citigroup is the benefit reduction rate”assumption▲25%”and have seen,this interest rate reduced as PER this, the stock price is fluctuating.
・(Reference) in the past the stock has a large lower width and case
(1) the collapse of the IT bubble in 2000, 4 months ▲63.5%
(2) The Lehman shock in 2007 6 months ▲61.7%
(3) cheongsam・shock in 2015 6 January ▲29.1%
(4) VIX shock by 2018 1 month ▲15.7%