*19:47JST next quotes in the notable 3 points: 11 months machinery orders,us Beige Book,US-China trade agreement the first stage signed
■Tokyo Stock Market Outlook
Expected range: upper limit 24350-lower 23650 yen
Next week’s Nikkei average also contact 商状 is assumed. Iran and the situation of détente in the direction of the turn and in 2020, 1 on the 1st week of the Nikkei Stock Average to rise it is. However, still in the Middle East geopolitical risk is smoldering. And the trouble is recurrent if it is”stock prices””yen””high oil prices”of the Tokyo market hit that. In addition, China’s Liu Deputy Prime Minister from the 13th to Washington to visit on the 15th, the US-China trade talks of Phase 1 of the agreement the two countries plan to sign it has been reported that after the deployment is still uncertain. Next week on the 20th of Canada・in Vancouver, the Chinese telecommunication giant・Huawei Technologies (Huawei)Meng evening boat Vice Chairman and extradition proceedings will begin. Besides this, the opening session of the year on the stock trading floor is shown to the right of the Nikkei Stock Average plunging the Middle East problems of the United States 12 month supply management Association(ISM) manufacturing business sentiment index 10-year low in depressed and lowered as the material worked. JST 16 on the night of rice 12 months retail sales will be announced. The US economic data releases also requires attention. Middle East geopolitical risk,U.S.-China trade talks,the United States economy and the trends of the nervous expansion is expected. Index impact of large retailing in 2020 is 8 months full-year operating income expected to radically decrease the prospect to downward revision, the index’s upper limit for suppressing the shape as well. However, the growth expectations of the big tech stocks push the eye to pick up the stronger,the Nikkei Stock Average is a steady movement to strengthen this fact. Incidentally, next week the 20th is Martin Luther King’s birth anniversary in the U.S. market is closed this week, from the second half of the buyer to refrain from is strongly expected.
Ransacked side, the opening session of the year on the stock trading floor is shown to the right from 10 days to 5 days after, and tech stocks of the iconic presence, which is also Sony<6758>It is remarkable that. The 2020 year-end sales season launched to improve home-use game machine”Play Station 5″, followed by the automatic operation of the EV Concept Car announced that have. From 15 to 17 at Tokyo Big site”in automated driving EXPO”is scheduled to be held, and related stocks of the stimulus material have a long way to go to do it. In addition, 16-day Imperial Palace in the”theme of the Imperial New Year’s ceremony”is performed. In the stock market being announced next year’s theme material a plan view tend to. Incidentally, the 2020 and the title is”wish”was. In addition, next week the 23rd of Nidec<6594>From 3 months ended financial results of the companies 3rd quarter earnings announcement is to start. The U.S. and turn around and if the accounting period for the high brand name in the advanced physical buying is likely to enter.
The main economy related information about the schedule, the 13th is a coming-of-Age Day at the Tokyo market closed on Friday,14 November to 11 December balance of payments, 12 March Economy Watchers survey, the 12 month change in the CPI,15 day 12 month base,the BOJ branch managers meeting in the Kuroda BOJ Governor greetings, regional economic report(see Report),16 days to 11 months Machinery Orders,12 month Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index,17 December to 11 January Tertiary Industry Activity Index is scheduled.
■The foreign exchange market prospects
Next week the dollar・yen and the sluggish growth expected to expand. The situation in the East of the state of tension is eased to a certain extent, the risk-averse trade has narrowed. However, it will be announced next week 12 month consumer price index such as the US inflation-related economic indicators,current US financial policy can have a significant impact on low only. U.S. interest rates being watched resurfaced, the perception is less, the inflation-related economic indicators, market expectations and matched the rise in the dollar is small and so.
China’s Liu 鶴副 The Prime Minister 1 May 13 from Washington plan to visit in the United States and trade consultations in Phase 1 of the agreement signing is expected to spread,the US-China trade talks and the final agreement is in 2021 or later to view as well. Therefore, Phase 1 of the agreement signed by the risk appetite by buy USD・sell JPY and higher the possibility is low that. Dollar・yen is the psychological milestone of 110 yen to close at this level to clearly break through the only of dollars to buy all the ingredients are not the view of many. 14 days will be announced on 12 March of the US core CPI index (CPI)y / y+2.3% inflation rate is 11 actuals and the standards expected, and the dollar of the boosting factors is less so.
Among market participants is”the US Federal Reserve Board (the FED)at the end of 2020 in the current policy rate likely to keep”the world, and the early additional rate cuts are expected from. However, inflation, employment-related economic indicators of market expectations and significantly above the situation unless the rate hike is also expected the situation is expected to continue.
■Next week the attention of the schedule
1 May 13 (mon):the domestic stock market for the holidays closed(adult day), and the UK・industrial production UK・merchandise trade balance, China’s Liu 鶴副 Prime Minister trade agreement signed for the United States, such as
1 on 14 October(Tue): day・the balance of payments,trade balance,Economy Watchers Survey,US・core CPI index, in・trade, etc
1 on May 15 (Wed): Japan・machine tool orders, UK・the core CPI index, Sino-US two countries is”Phase 1″of the trade agreement signing of the plan,US・Beige Book, such as
1 on 16 November (Thursday):November core machinery orders,while the newly・built housing prices in Europe・New Car Sales,US import price index,TSMC earnings announcement,the South African Reserve Bank interest rate announcement, such as
1 on 17 October (Fri):October・foreign tourists, the number of medium・to-GDP(10-12 months), medium・retail sales,US・housing starts,Korea・the Central Bank interest rate announcement, such as《SK》