*18:33JST next quotes in the notable 3 points:the corona 2 the infection situation,geopolitical risks, and semiconductor related stock movement
■Tokyo Stock Market Outlook
Expected range: upper limit 23000-lower 21700 yen
Next week, the Nikkei Stock Average,Japan a new type of Corona number of infections and U.S. markets・exchange rate movements, glaring at the two steady expansion is expected. New Corona infection in the first 2 waves of concern and the Korean Peninsula’s geopolitical risk,the US election campaign for Trump’s approval ratings downturn, such as the risk off mood of the retreat,continue to concern it.
On the other hand, from the 19th state to move the restriction is completely lifted, the economic recovery expectations are also increasing. The external environment and the intensity of the material a tug of war in the state. Technical overheating and retreated,the Nikkei stock average of 25-day moving average line and the 13-week moving average is also rising, keeping the 5-day moving average lines are bottoming and the market’s up trend is not crumble.
In this situation, the positive work as that of the individual stocks of dynamic, however. 18 during the current fiscal year earnings forecasts disclosed in the East End on the 19th day compared to 7%that exceeds the rate of increase showed. Advantest<6857>Such as around the brand name also brought high, and the semiconductor-related stocks popular over the years and the Nikkei Stock Average is the upper limit to the observed scene is coming out and expectations. However, the 19 day, the Nikkei average is 3 days rebounded, whereas the TSE 1st section of the number of Gainers and gainers almost antagonistic, the TOPIX (Tokyo Stock Price Index)is 3 EU was. This trend continues, the Nikkei Stock Average and the market is the divergence as another possibility.
■The foreign exchange market prospects
Next week the dollar・yen is resilient value movements. Recently announced for a major U.S. economic indicators the strength just. Industrial production and housing starts, etc from the last time have improved, and expected as good as the content was not. However, in 5 months retail sales or 6 months Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Survey (manufacturing industry sentiment index) is a market I’m over the moon and was content. The various restrictive measures of mitigation with economic activity is gradually expanding, the economic indicators greatly improved and contributed to the like. Stock markets economic indicators of unexpected improvements likable, and explained that.
In some States the new coronavirus of new infections is increasing, and the”second wave”of infection prevalence vigilant. Outside the US, China and India border in the vicinity of armed conflict,North Korea and South Korea military demarcation line in the conflict between been reported, and geopolitical risks increase concerns for the dollar sell・yen, Buy also observed. It is also the United States economy to the normalization of the observations is not receded from, the dollar is the bottom hard to see the movement which may. Will be announced this week several economic indicators, market expectations and matched,or outperformed, if the prospects for the U.S. economy concerns ease,dollar buying factor for me. Also, us long-term interest rates rise, the dollar is lower on the deployment and have a long way to go to do it.
■Next week the attention of the schedule
6 October 22 (Mon): US・Existing home sales number(5 July), the rice・Apple Worldwide Developers Conference, etc
6 on 23 October (Tuesday): Day・manufacturing / services PMI(6 January), the day・machine tool orders(5 months),Europe・Eurozone manufacturing / services PMI(6 January), rice・manufacturing / services PMI(6 May),us・new home sales number(5 month)such as
6 月 24 日 (Wednesday): Day・although the economic Outlook CI index(4 March),features and content guide,the content such as the IPO resumption,German IFO business confidence index(6 July), IMF World Economic Outlook(WEO)publication, etc
6 on 25 October (Thursday):the day・all industry activity index(4 months),US・Durable Goods Orders(5 December), the US・Federal Reserve(FED)is a major financial institution stress test results etc
6 on 26 October (Fri): Commerce One Holdings IPO, the US・Personal Consumption Expenditure(5 months)like
6 month 28 days (Sunday): in・industrial profits(5 months)like
U.S. stock market Outlook: the FED’s Bank stress test to focus(6/20)
Emerging market Outlook: emerging strain of popular followed 2 months than play the IPO again large (6/20)
The attention of European Economic Indicators:5 September US Durable Goods Orders are a double-digit increase expected(6/20)《YN》