Investment

Should we aim for small and medium-cap stocks in March?

Should we aim for small and medium-cap stocks in March?
In March, most companies will finalize their March results. In addition, it is a month when shareholder benefits and dividend rights are determined in accordance with the settlement of accounts.

During this period, institutional investors and companies that settle in March sell their stocks as a measure for closing their accounts, but on the other hand, companies and funds buy dressings to buy their own to better see the end of the fiscal year. Is said to move greatly.

This time, we examined the trend of the March market using past stock price data.

◇ Verification conditions
Verification target: All brands
Validation period: March 1, 1990 to January 31, 2020
Investment amount per issue: 200,000 yen

Buying conditions: Buy at the end of February
Selling conditions: Selling on the next business day after 25 days

We will verify that all stocks are purchased at the end of February and sold after 25 days.

If the win rate is 50% or more and profit and loss are positive, March will be a month when stock prices tend to rise. Conversely, if profits and losses are negative, couldn't we say that March is an easy month to fall?

The results of verification using past data with the above rules are as follows.

検 証 Results of stock market trends [March]
Master of system trade
Win rate: 52.41%
Number of wins: 46,891
Losses: 42,577
Number of draws: 2,132

Total profit / loss [rate]: 143,036.52%
Average profit / loss [rate]: 1.56%

Total profit [rate]: 457,661.77%
Average profit [rate]: 9.76%

Total loss [rate]: -314,625.25%
Average loss [rate]: -7.39%

Profit factor [total profit / total loss]: 1.455
Average retention days: 27.60

The above is the result of examining the stock market trend [March].

Looking at the test results, the win rate is 52.41% and the average profit and loss is 1.56%. The win rate is over 50%, and the average profit per trade is also positive, so it seems that stock prices tend to rise in March.

The March market is said to be a month in which it is easy for institutional investors to buy dressings for the purpose of raising the yield on investment funds and institutional investors, as well as measures for closing accounts in March. Individual investors also tend to buy for the purpose of dividends and shareholder benefits.

On the other hand, it is said that sales are easy to make because corporate corporations and institutional investors sell their stocks as a measure for closing their accounts. Both the buying and selling powers are material March prices, but according to the results of verification using past data, it can be said that overall there is a tendency for the price to rise easily.

Next, I would like to introduce the individual stocks that performed well in the stock market in March, which had such a tendency.

◆ March issue ranking
Master of system trade
The table shows the ranking of individual stocks with the highest win rates in the above verification results. Looking at the top brands,

Japan Foods <2599>
Jutech Holdings <3157>
Transaction <7818>

And so on. These are small and medium-sized companies with a market capitalization of less than 50 billion yen. It is said that small and medium-sized stocks and emerging stocks are more volatile than large-cap stocks, making it easier for investors to see trends.

For this reason, it is thought that after the sales of the settlement of accounts by the company have been completed, buying is easy and the stock price tends to rise.

In the upbeat March market, why not focus on these small and medium-sized caps?

Sentence = Tsuyoshi Nishimura [money guide]
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