*12:00JST Shouta Etsu child:in 2020 the market movement to predict【FISCO social Reporter】
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※In 2019, 12 May 30, 13 at the time of writing
◇In 2019 carried forward from attention to movement(1) British EU Withdrawal
2019 year 12 month 12 day made in the British House of Commons in the General election, the British House of Commons constant of 650 seats against the ruling party・the Conservative Party has 365 seats won. The Conservative Party is of Lady Thatcher’s heyday was in the 1980s, since the victory was.
After 12 month 20 days in the UK, Boris Johnson Prime Minister on 10 the European Union(EU) agreed on withdrawal draft agreement to 358 for the 234 majority vote passed in a couple of years lasted for EU Withdrawal over political infighting that fits in 2020, 1 month 31 days of leaving the EU towards a big leap forward. Leaving the EU the preparation of the closing deadline at the end of 2020, and extended that to legislate in the direction they have been adjusted.
Leaving the EU, with the 2020 year the British Central Bank (BOE) is rate cuts and speculation is widespread. This is EU withdrawal and economic damage relieve,or the EU other than economy and trade activation for pound is a disadvantage for most of it.
From these things,the 2020 is the first, 1 on May 31, leaving the EU to run seems to be around the market is sensitive likely to respond to it. Then, reductions in the policy interest rate is performed at the company of the movement is expected to you can. EU withdrawal procedures the progress of good about coverage if the positive movement and progress is bad news if the negative movement can be expected.
The ruling party・the Tories win a majority for EU Withdrawal Bill the British Parliament is passed by the British Parliament is able to function normally from the UK, the government has been stable and received, the pound is successfully moving and predictable. Pound is moving the market is a lively movement, and the 2020 is the trade and quotes as well, is it not?
◇In 2019 carried forward from the attention Movement(2) U.S.-China trade talks
This US-China conflict the movement of the recalls. 2018 Year 7 months from the imposition made by the US side to sanction tariffs in 2019 5 forecast point approximately 2,500 billion dollars worth of Chinese products for up to 25% increased.
2019 Year 9 month 1 days, further sanction tariff”4th”of the first part and approximately 1,120 billion dollars worth of Chinese goods in the customs tariff of 15% imposed. The remaining approximately 1,600 billion dollars minutes for the second half of 2019, and 12 months 15 days to activate the will, but this is postponed.
As for China, the United States of China sanctions the customs about the gradual withdrawal but there,12 on 15 September triggered the appointment is only postponed and this was in U.S. imports of agricultural products specific to the announcement, without the”United States of a tariff reduction according to take action”and only responded.
In 2020, if U.S.-China trade talks will be continued in the trade talks depends on the coverage,the market moves higher-than-expected sound. US-China trade talks are difficult, if negative, the Chinese stock index and the original sale from China an alternative currency, the Australian dollar also sell them. Conversely,U.S.-China trade talks progressing well if positive, the Chinese stock index and the yuan are bought, the Australian dollar is bought it.
Pound along with the Australian dollar moving to and, increasingly the market is booming as it is.
◇In 2019 carried forward from the attention movement(3) the North Korea problem
In 2019, 2 in the end of Vietnam, of Hanoi, made in U.S.-North Korea summit, the North Korea denuclearization agreement, signing a document is send-only. After 11 months”North Korea has Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM)to the engine used for the combustion experiments were carried out, is likely to”policy report 12 on May 21, the US Defense Secretary, a provocative posture that will strengthen North Korea about,”if necessary, fight and win the Battle of the ready,”he said,checking it.
The North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman in the country’s government criticized the US government for, the United States is”burned this”and warnings such as conflict, severe Fund-raising conditions and insufficient capital base has eased considerably in. The year 2020 is U.S.-North Korea relationship between coverage of the focus market to the big move and may be a factor. Contingency happened during the crisis of the dollar, the contingency of yen buying as there are words,then, the contingency dollars to buy yen to buy explained-We hope you love it.
◇Contingency dollars to buy yen to buy one
Basically the Middle East in such a contingency happened, if the United States or other countries begin to attack when temporarily buy dollars and then dollars will be sold on trend. In 2001, on 9/11 occurred in America the terrorist attacks in the United States is under attack, with the dollar being sold,the 120-yen was the dollar yen 115 yen plummeted.
Past emergencies in the United States launch an attack from,attack from the movement of the dollar there is a difference in North Korea and the U.S. if there is a collision, the geopolitical thinking, when the Japanese are very close to each other for easy yen buying and that is questionable. The past of”contingency dollars buy”,”contingency of the yen buy”on the street it may not move,carefully judging … more
◇終身雇用制 myth collapsed with the beginning of the investment
In 2019, the Keidanren of Nakanishi, Chairman of the”lifetime employment maintenance companies have no incentive””it’s more than raising the minimum wage is companies no”and say it. Toyota<7203>Also, lifetime employment about the It is difficult to maintain the opinion expressed,Fujitsu<6702>Is over the age of 45 employees of 2,850 people to the subject,early retirement and transfer was carried out. NEC<6701>A similar restructuring measures to tackle the policy announced.
Japanese 終身雇用制 myth begins to it. Stable fixed income in the uncertain state if placed in,or as a source of income as increases and investment, such as awareness, is it not?
After 2020, the”investment”with the presence,I am going very near there and it wasn’t all fun and games. These in the flow of steady income for the”anxiety and psychological”for”easy to earn”such a sweet temptation,hard to store for a fortune easily provided as there is no way, I get to do….
I FX trade for more than 10 years and will trade anything. Trade when the knowledge you need, the team of the technical,market knowledge, metrics, presentation of knowledge, the stock index and long-term interest rates knowledge, now been the focus of attention to world Affairs such as knowledge. The charts started to move, when this knowledge in a short time their own analysis to emerge. Never,”easy to earn”not a word is said because there is no other.
Investment awareness it needs, and to invest what is the if you learn some of its initiatives in 1 How many times a day from them,their own efforts is possible to show and I think we need. “Easy to earn”the saying is, first, the most wary be the radiant girl as a grown up Cutie or sweet.
This content is a look at the can from me and I have a thing.
Author name: Shouta the foreign exchange Institute Co., Ltd. President and Representative Director Shouta Etsu child
Blog name:the FX diary~FX in the household at~《US》