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U.S. stock market Outlook: bottoming out is still ahead,new virus the convergence of the wait

*14:43JST the U.S. stock market Outlook: bottoming out is still ahead,new virus the convergence of the wait
This week is Month-End, quarter-end and, from the position of the adjustment movement would spread. Stock investors fear management indicates the extent of the VIX index is still 60 units with historically high levels and the market is still vulnerable to evidence. Trump is the President 4 the middle of the Paschal(Easter)by economic activity resumed with the intention of showing the nation a new type of virus to the number of infected people in China and Italy surpassed the world record, with the convergence signs still seen,the resumption of economic activity is still ahead and the view of many. The government and the Federal Reserve (the FED)large-scale support time one,the 4th,the 5th in a series of need assistance with a view the least not. Bear market characteristics and bottoming out before in the short term once again the lows to try out the possibilities to be alert for. Prominent investor Paul Tudor・Jones of the new virus to combat fiscal and monetary stimulus”Bazooka”or more”nuclear weapons”and said the government and the FED’s quick and massive response to the praise, and 4 around the bottom of it, and the subsequent rapid recovery than expected as well.

Economic indicators in the 2 month pending home sales preliminary agreement(30 Days),2 March Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (30 Days), 1 month S&P housing price index (31 days), 3 month Chicago Purchasing Managers ‘ Index (PMI) (31 days), 3 month consumer confidence index (31 days), 3 months ADP Employment Report (1 Days), 3 month manufacturing PMI (1 Day), 3 March ISM manufacturing index (1 Day), 2 on the trade balance (2 days), weekly Initial Jobless Claims (2 days), 3 on Friday (3 days), 3 March ISM Non-Manufacturing index (3 days) is scheduled. New virus infections enlarged by the impact indicators to what extent you can see to focus. 3 months of Consumer Confidence Index and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index,consumer spending trends for. Also, the US in major cities a curfew has been issued for many companies and retail shops manufacture stop and leave you strong from the labor market trends is notable. Last week’s weekly jobless claims are on the alert for Street surged 300 million more than the largest size reached is the unemployed, the surge has just begun. Number of applications filed the next 4 weeks, in total 1500 million,2000 million and may reach, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4 months to almost 20% rise can be vigilant. Bernanke former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board also in the short-term economic indicators in the”terrible consequences is just”a warning. In particular, gross domestic product (GDP)rose at an annual rate that appears for the 30%negative growth such as the threat of consequences needs to be prepared for it.

Corporate earnings, seasonings maker McCormick (31 days)drugstore chain wall Green Boots (2 days), used car dealership car Max (2 days)as scheduled. Seasonings manufacturer McCormick go out and regulation such as the impact of the sales increase is expected. Or,the drugstore chain wall Green Boots the new virus spread related to the demand surge due to strong result is expected. On the other hand, 2 weeks after 1-3 month earnings season will get into the new virus effect of opacity is stronger, more and more companies are prospects presented to refrain from the policy of so.

(Horiko Capital Management LLC) 《FA》


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